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  本篇assignment代写-赤字和盈余讲了纵观1996年至2008年全球经常项目收支,盈余国家可分为石油出口国、日本、中国、亚洲新兴国家和欧洲核心国家。赤字国家包括美国和欧洲外围国家,在前两个阶段,失衡相对稳定和温和。然而,从2005年到2008年,经常账户失衡激增,导致赤字和盈余群体数量增加。全球金融危机后,美国经济大幅萎缩,赤字减少了一半以上。从那时起,全球经常账户失衡出现小幅波动和小幅下降。从国与国之间不平衡的演变和各国之间的相互作用来看,其原因和后果都是显而易见的,这有助于解释全球储蓄过剩理论,而这正是不平衡产生的根源。本篇assignment代写文章由加拿大第一论文 Assignment First辅导网整理,供大家参考阅读。

  In appendix, Figure 1 illustrates the global imbalance distribution of different groups of countries from 1996 to 2014. Taking an overview of the current account balance of the whole world from 1996 to 2008, countries with surpluses may be divided into oil-exporting countries, Japan, China, emerging Asian countries, and core European countries. Countries with a deficit include the US and countries on the periphery of Europe In the first two stages, the imbalances were relatively stable and moderate. However, from 2005 to 2008, current account imbalances surged, which led to an increased number of groups with deficits and surpluses. After the global financial crisis, there was significant shrinkage and the US deficit decreased by more than half. Since then, the global current account imbalance has fluctuated mildly and declined slightly. Regarding the evolution of the imbalance between countries and how these countries interacted, the causes and consequences are all observable and shed light on the global savings glut theory, which is where the imbalance originated.

  2.2.1 The productivity boom and investments in the US and Asia (1996–2000)

  From 1996 to 2000, investment in America increased at a relatively fast pace as compared to the rest of the world. In particular, the foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio equity shares of the US current account balance grew dramatically (see Figure 5a) (Blanchard & Milesi-Ferretti, 2009). People expected US investments to be perceived as part of a high-tech development boom in the dot-com industry. This created a sustainable boost in the world economy with the high productivity. The Asian financial crisis began in Thailand and resulted from the policy response of emerging Asian countries. In 1996, this crisis began to set the stage for the global imbalance that was experienced prior to 2000 (Bernanke, 2005). Before the crisis, Thailand had a pegged exchange rate to dollar and an open financial market. Additionally, the credit expansion had built up asset prices. Currency speculation led to an attack against the Asian vulnerable financial system. In a short period of time, because of the lack of currency reserves for the US dollar, the baht could not hold its value and began to depreciate. This depreciation spread to all of Asia except China (Maurice Obstfeld & Rogoff, 2009). After 1997, emerging Asian stock prices had fallen and relative dollar appreciation was reduced in US net foreign assets. Since current account and exchange rate adjustment reflect also the net foreign asset positions. This remained the valuation changes from exchange rate adjustment and made the capital flow reversal. Consequently, the emerging Asian markets began to run current account surpluses instead of deficits. After the Asian financial crisis, as a result of the currency depreciation and economic recession, diminished imports also helped to reverse the imbalance (Adams & Park, 2009). The economic growth of these emerging countries relied on exports, so export-led policy prevailed. After the crisis, the emerging Asian countries preferred to engage in the precautionary behavior of foreign reserve accumulation, as this was a strategy that they had learned from the economic crisis (Yu, 2007). Unfortunately, this strategy made domestic investment in Asia less attractive. Meanwhile, Japan had the largest surplus in the world with 0.3% of the world GDP. On a whole, investment tended to decrease as a result of the recession (O Blanchard & Milesi-Ferretti, 2009). During this time period, the global imbalance embodied a surging demand for investments in efficient means of production and technical progress. The capital flow reflected an optimal allocation. Countries with surpluses had excess savings that were not excessive while countries with deficits had acceptable levels of debt. Bernanke (2005) hold the view that the imbalance during this period set the stage to the global saving glut hypothesis. Financial crisis in Asia during this period declined the investment significantly, and hurt the domestic import demand.

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