买家取消订单时,然而,建筑商的投机数量单位(房屋建筑商没有收到公司订单)上升,这增加了库存问题。尽管如此,在两年,削减了投机性的建筑商已经做了很好的工作单位,在我们看来。当房地产市场复苏,一些开发商迎合首次和move-up买家将增加投机单位出售,在假设的潜在好处好处远远抵消疲软的住房市场的风险。投机完成房屋的可用性使这些房屋建筑商来实现更短的时间内完成销售。的风险,当然,是规范家庭需要更多的时间来卖,这发生在房市低迷和导致更多的资产将冲销。我们相信买家的水平激励对新房锥形从高水平经历了在过去的两年里,因为动力不刺激更多的流量到家园社区。建筑商广告转向教育市场新屋社区或购房和租房的经济学。2010年5月,KB宣布了一项教育活动在许多家全国社区关注买房与租房的好处。“如何买房”事件给首次购房者一个提问的机会,更好的了解房屋所有权的经济学。研讨会还计划来解决如何买房预算;评估新的、转售和银行属性;以及购房者如何个性化他们的梦想的家。
在2010年的前九个月,我们还看到的平均销售价格稳定最大的上市公司。我们相信mid-to上青少年的平均毛利率仍将展望2011年,与一些建筑商发布的毛利率在20%以上。这将是一个鲜明的对比,2008年和2009年,当毛利率下降,许多房屋建筑商高个位数。我们认为潜在的更广泛的利润率降低土地成本,高单位体积增长,降低劳动力和材料成本。
When buyers cancel orders, however, the homebuilder’s number of speculative units (homes in which the builder has not received a firm order) rises, which adds to inventory woes. Nonetheless, in the two years, builders have done a good job of paring off speculative units, in our view. When the housing market recovers, some homebuilders catering to first-time and move-up buyers will add speculative units for sale, under the assumption that the potential upside benefits more than offset the risks of a weaker housing market. The availability of speculative finished houses enables these homebuilders to achieve a shorter time to complete a sale. The risk, of course, is that the spec homes require more time to sell, which happened during the housing downturn and results in many more asset write offs. We believe the level of buyer incentives on new homes has tapered off from the high levels experienced in the past two years, because the incentives are not stimulating more traffic to their home communities. Homebuilder advertising is shifting to educating the market on new home communities or the economics of home ownership versus renting. In May 2010, KB Home announced an educational event at many of its home communities around the country focusing on the benefits of purchasing a home versus renting. The “How to Buy a Home” event gives first-time homebuyers a chance to ask questions and better understand the economics of home ownership. Workshops also plan to address how to budget to buy a home; evaluating new, resale and bank-owned properties; and how homebuyers can personalize the home of their dreams.
In the first nine months of 2010, we have also seen the average selling price stabilize for the largest publicly traded companies. We believe average gross margins will remain in the mid-to upper teens looking ahead to 2011, with some builders posting gross margins above 20%. This would be a striking contrast to 2008 and 2009, when gross margins dipped to high single digits for many homebuilders. We base our view of potential wider margins on lower land costs, high unit volume growth, and lower labor and material costs.
